A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Experts Warn

A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."